Calculating Risk in 2026: One That Has Looked Bad Since 2021

 The Fool card is the first in the tarot deck. It represents the importance of taking wise risks. Isn't that what life is all about. And the mystical tarot is about putting together the best life for yourself.

Do that right - that is taking smart risks - and the odds are you will get much of what you want - and almost magically. Do that carelessly and you can lose it all, including second chances.

In 2026, with so much uncertainty and change it's increasingly difficult to calculate risk. For example, you haven't received a pay raise or promotion. Typical in current times. But connecting the dots on whether to take another job or do a startup is filled with info holes. Moreover, at your age, what is current stomach for risk. 

But there is one type of risk which is easier to assess. That's the decision to matriculate for an academic degree beyond the BA/BS. The intel on the peril of that - especially low ROI - goes way back in time to The Wall Street Journal's exposes. 

In 2021, how about the glam path of going for the glam of film studies. The WSJ reports:

"Recent film program graduates of Columbia University who took out federal student loans had a median debt of $181,000. Yet two years after earning their master’s degrees, half of the borrowers were making less than $30,000 a year."

Scroll Reddit and notice the issue is not whether to go to film school but which one. 

The WSJ also did a job on the default of the lost college graduate: going to law school. However, applications to law school are surging. That will probably accelerate as the word has gotten out that Milbank boosted entry-level compensation at the law firm to $235k annually. Other law firms matched that.

Of course, as a coach I warn youth and their parents that the odds are not good for 1) landing a high-paying job in law, at least high enough to pay off the average $137,500 law school student loan debt and 2) holding on to that plum job.

Joining me in the warning are SCOTUS chief justice John Roberts, Paul, Weiss partner Brad Karp and Quinn co-founder John Quinn. All predict a significant decline in the hiring of junior lawyers, mostly because of AI. I would add onto that, the mandate of cost-efficiency.

And it's cost-efficiency, along with a glut of newly minted JDs, that is responsible, reports The National Law Journal, for the current smaller overall size of first-year hires. The article goes on to loop into the worsening hiring situation because of AI.

But the overall messaging about the lousy ROI odds for advanced academic degrees is not getting through. 

Why? 

My hunch from listening to young people is this: a lack of courage for exploring a variety of ways to make a good living. There is fear of appearing as a failure who's bouncing around. Identity as a graduate/professional student is a solid one. Major success seems possible. That's about The Big Score.

This identity piece is huge. Most of my clients who are retired have become lost without a professional identity. Yet they hesitate to invest in finding a new kind of purpose.

So, here we are: An America in which humans won't take real risks in the need for an identity. Instead they default into more and more education or unhappiness in aging.

Path to earning a good living, finding your tribe and not going insane is doable.

Let’s start the journey together with a Tarot reading.

One free question.

Jane Genova, 3^rd Generation Psychic 203-468-8579, jangenova374@gmail.com