Job Wipeout, Stock Market Crash, End of Human Transactional Middlemen - What the Folks at Citrini and Psychics Might Know and the Experts Play Down

The first card in the mystical tarot is the one for risk.


And the buzzy Substack post by Citrini Research positions and packages AI as a big risk to the stock market, employment throughout the US and the role of humans in sectors like real estate which historically demanded that kind of go-between. Also at risk is the age-old value put on high intelligence. 

By 2028, no employer might care about your IQ. So, stop guiding your children to study hard and get top grades. Instead, maybe tell them to get good with their hands or prepare their heart to work in personal services.

Here's a snippet from Citrini:

"It should have been clear all along that a single GPU cluster in North Dakota generating the output previously attributed to 10,000 white-collar workers in midtown Manhattan is more economic pandemic than economic panacea. The velocity of money flatlined. The human-centric consumer economy, 70% of GDP at the time, withered. We probably could have figured this out sooner if we just asked how much money machines spend on discretionary goods. (Hint: it’s zero.)"

Yesterday the investment community took note. The Wall Street Journal reports:  

"Many of Monday’s [plunging downward] moves roughly aligned with the situation outlined by Citrini, in which fast-advancing AI tools allow spending cuts across industries, sparking mass white-collar unemployment and in turn leading to financial contagion." 

 And today BusinessInsider interviews experts on how accurate might be the Citrini scenario. Well, most size it up as the typical fear scam to generate attention.

But simultaneously we bear witness to the IBM stock taking a fierce hit because of what AI player Anthropic has come up with. Yahoo Finance screams:

"IBM (NYSE:IBM) shares hit a session low Monday afternoon, falling 10%, after Anthropic announced an AI tool designed to streamline COBOL code modernization."

In addition, this AI innovation knocked the stocks of Accenture and Cognizant.

Sure, the experts up there at 30,000 feet can smugly dismiss Citrini. But here on the ground the panic about an acceleration for the end of knowledge work, Great Depression style stock market unraveling and elimination of human transactional roles is real. In tarot readings that's the focus, not intimate relationships. Anyway, no one trusts the experts.  They told kids to get degrees in computer science. They told me to get a PhD in the humanities. 

The lack of expert credibility is dominant because the people are already being catapulted into another dimension. Take the devaluation of human intelligence. 

My post on just this is getting plenty of attention. It spells out how dazzling potential employers with your mighty mind and store of knowledge and even big wins could result in your never working again. Think about it: The smart move may be to conceal some of that brain power in job-search materials and interviews. Leave that kind of cognitive heavy lifting to the machine. Figure out: What do employers actually need?

Those brilliant strategists in Big Law, finance and management consulting could also become of equally low value. 

Here's how it could go. A corporation has an urgent high-stakes legal issue. Its in-house team feeds a range of strategies into AI. They call in one partner from a major law firm. Next, together, they test several out given a range of opposing counsels, venues, judges and types of juries. It will only take a handful of human lawyers to implement that in an actual courtroom. 

Incidentally in an interview with Lawyer Monthly last March Paul, Weiss' Brad Karp had been predicting not only fewer entry-level slots for junior lawyers but also ramped-up hiring of technologists and data scientists. Meanwhile Karp projects that many high-fee practices could become a commodity.

But, those submitting that surge of applications to law school obviously aren't being distracted by the Citrini research. 

And maybe a human mind might no longer be a terrible thing to waste.

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